Selasa, 29 Jun 2010

Budget disaster in all states of America

Almost no one — and no place — is exempt. Nearly everywhere, tax revenue plummeted as property values tanked, incomes dwindled and consumers stopped shopping. Falling prices for stocks and real estate have made mincemeat of often underfunded public pension plans. Unemployed workers have swelled the demand for welfare and Medicaid services. Governments that were frugal in the past are just squeaking by. Governments that were lavish in the good times, building their budgets on optimism and best-case scenarios, now risk being wrecked like a shantytown in an earthquake.

New York raises cigarette prices to 11 bucks a pack, and expects higher revenues rather than increased smuggling and a more powerful mafia. Massachusetts spends its savings while hoping for a federal bailout. And let’s not even bother with California. At the other end of the spectrum are Colorado and New Jersey, where real cuts will bring budgets closer to real balance.

It’s also clear that sometime in the next year or two, the worst-run states will balk at laying off half their workers and will choose instead to default on their debt, presenting Washington with the same choice as with the banks in 2008: bailouts or contagion.

Even where states make real cuts in spending, the resulting economic contractions will be brutal.

Muni bonds, which are funded by sport stadiums and the like — or by state/city general revenues — are the next sector to blow up.

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