Understanding fall and rise of gold

When the US Dollar gets stronger, it takes fewer dollars to buy any commodity that is priced in $USD. When the US Dollar gets weaker it takes more dollars to purchase the same commodity.

The price of all US Dollar denominated commodities, like gold, will change to reflect the fact that it will take fewer or more dollars to buy that commodity. So it’s quite possible, in fact it’s almost always the case that a portion of the change in the price of gold is really just a reflection of a change in the value of the US Dollar. Sometimes that portion is insignificant. But often the opposite is true where the entire change in the gold price is simply a mathematical recalculation of an ever-changing US Dollar value.

When the dollar gets strong, gold appears to go down, and vice versa. That accounts for part of the fluctuations that we see in the value of gold.
The other part is an actual increase in the supply or demand for gold. If the price is higher when being measured not only in US Dollars, but also in Euros, Pounds Sterling, Japanese Yen, and every other major currency, then we know the gold demand is higher and it has actually increased in value.

Consequently, if gold is higher in US Dollars while at the same time cheaper in every other currency, then we can conclude that the US Dollar has weakened, and that gold has actually lost value in all other currencies. But the price, because it is being quoted in $USD will be higher and give the illusion of gold becoming more valuable. In such a case the devaluation of gold, due to increased supply on the market, is camouflaged by a weakened US Dollar.

Our feature on kitco.com breaks the change of the price of gold into 2 components. One part shows you how much of that change can be attributed to US Dollar strength, or lack of it. The other portion is indicative of how much the price changed as a result of normal trading. Interestingly whatever changes happen to the price of gold as a result of US Dollar strength/weakness also occurs to every other US Dollar denominated commodity by the exact same proportion."
- (http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html)

"Jual emas bila harga mahal?"

Gambar ihsan dari http://atjehgeutanyoe.blogspot.com

Seringkali kita dengar orang kata "beli emas bila harga murah dan jual emas bila harga mahal". Kata-kata ini tidak munasabah dalam apa jua perspektif. Kenapa?
Yang pertama, tiada istilah harga murah bagi emas, justeru orang ramai sepatutnya membeli bila mereka berduit. Tidak kiralah harga mahal ataupun murah. Tidak mungkin harga emas RM170/gram sekarang akan kembali kepada RM35 atau RM70 segram semasa zaman perkahwinan saya atau zaman emak dan ayah saya dulu-dulu. Kalau murah hanya 4,5 ringgit berbanding semalam tiadalah apa-apa ertinya jika kenaikan keesokannya atau pun sesudah setahun terus mencanak naik menggila. Jadi isitilah harga emas kembali murah hendaklah dibuang jauh-jauh dari kota pemikiran jika kita benar-benar ingin memiliki emas. Persoalan yang hanya perlu kita pertimbangkan untuk beli emas adalah adakah cukup duit kita untuk membeli belanja harian dan membayar hutang jika emas hendak dibeli.

Namun lebih ramai lagi telah berkata "juallah emas bila harga tinggi". Kata-kata ini adalah dua kali tidak munasabah berbanding dengan persoalan yang pertama tadi. Persoalan yang maha penting adalah, kenapa hendak jual emas pada harga tinggi? Mungkin ada yang berkata: "time ni lah kita menuai hasil bila harga emas tinggi, kita jual, kita boleh dapat untung besar. Tengok aku dulu, beli emas time tu baru harga bla bla bla.., sekarang kau tengok harga emas dia bla bla bla.." Ini dialog yang sering meniti-niti di bibir 'pelabur-pelabur' emas namun yang pasti pejuang dinar emas yang sejati tidak akan menghambur sama sekali ayat-ayat sebegini. Kenapa? jawapannya mudah. Kenapa kita bersusah payah hendak beli emas pada awalnya sedangkan emas yang dimiliki akan awal-awal lagi bakal hilang dalam pemilikan kita tatkala ia harganya mahal? Sepatutnya bila harga mahal, lagi kita hendak simpan emas itu seerat-eratnya di dalam pemilikan kita, kecuali hal-hal kecemasan yang tidak boleh dielakkan. Jika kita menjual emas pada harga tinggi iaitu dengan menukarkannya dengan ringgit, sudah tentu kita akan rugi kerana ringgit akan merosot nilainya dan tidak mungkin kita akan dapat harga dan berat yang sama dengan nilai emas yang kita jualnya itu kerana umumnya mengetahui harga emas tidak aakn turun secara berterusan apatah lagi dalam keadaan mendadak. Jadi simpanlah bila harga emas tinggi dan kaalu ada duit lebih beli emas lagi.

Justeru bila masa kita hendak guna emas?

Bila:

1.Kecemasan seperti anak-anak sekolah ataupun masuk universiti yang mana memerlukan perbelanjaan yang mahal
2. Kelahiran anak yang baru yang juga memerlukan perbelanjaan yang banyak apatah lagi anak kembar 2,3,4..
3. Nak pegi haji/umrah
4. Bila hendak beli tanah atau buat rumah
5. dan juga apa saja kegiatan infaq yang terfikir oleh kita semua.
6. Menyelesaikan hutang-hutang tertunggak.
7. Hendak melangsungkan perkahwinan justeru emas dijadikan hantaran atau maskahwin.

Jadi marilah kita melayani emas-emas yang kita miliki sekarang seperti mana wanita melayani barang-barang kemas mereka. Wanita tidak sekali-kali menjual barang kemas mereka kecuali untuk menggadai bila terdesak atau pun 'trade in' untuk mendapatkan emas yang lain. Menjual emas pada harga yang tinggi tidak lebih kepada memanipulasi harga dan bersifat ihtikar. Malah apabila bayaran dibuat secara tertangguh, riba yang banyak dosanya itu pula akan menjengah kita/mereka.

Wallahua'lam

Adakah sama menyimpan emas dengan melabur emas?

Ada yang bertanya saya tentang pelaburan emas. Seorang pensyarah UiTM Johor bertanyakan tentang pelaburan dinar Iraq. Dia menyatakan ada seseorang ‘approach’nya lalu mendakwa kononnya dinar Iraq sekarang ‘undervalue’ sebab berlaku peperangan. Apabila keadaan kembali reda dan tenang di Iraq, ‘value’nya nanti akan naik mendadak dan tatkala itu pembeli (pelabur) dinar Iraq akan bersorak kegirangan menuai hasil lumayan dengan untung berlipat kali ganda. Begitulah hujah lazim yang seringkali merobek kebanyakan hati-hati kita yang sering mendambakan keuntungan atas angin. Namun, hakikatnya itu semua tidak akan berlaku. Untuk melayani karenah skim pelaburan sebegini, seseorang perlulah kembali kepada fundamental ilmu dengan kembali membuat rujukan tentang ilmu pelaburan terutamanya yang berkaitan dengan hukum agama. Saya tidaklah berniat untuk mengulas panjang tentang isu dinar Iraq ini kerana jelas dinar Iraq adalah bukan komoditi atau barangan yang boleh dijualbeli tetapi hanyalah wang kertas semata-mata. Justeru, pelaburan dinar Iraq telah tidak “shariah compliance” atau tidak patuh shariah pada peringkat pertama lagi. Jadi tak usahlah kita nak bersusah-susah untuk mem’predict’ dari sudut ekonomi pula. Apa yang pasti, Iraq masih lagi tidak reda walaupun kerajaan baru bersilih ganti.

Apa yang saya nak kongsikan di sini adalah proses memuhasabah semula segala tindakan kita yang mungkin tidak selari dengan hukum-hukum shariah yang berkaitan dengan pelaburan emas. Saya nak kemukakan persoalan ini untuk sama-sama kita renungi:
Adakah kita menyimpan emas atau melabur emas?

Ini adalah persoalan yang penting kerana kebanyakkan kita membeli emas dengan tujuan yang berbeza. Persoalannya ialah mana satukah yang betul? Simpan emas atau labur emas? Menyimpan emas tiada masalah, yang menjadi masalah apabila tak bayar zakat sedangkan cukup nisabnya. Sedangkan melabur emas harus mempunyai pendetilannya seperti untuk apa melabur emas? Adakah untuk mendapatkan keuntungan dalam bentuk duit semula hasil dari kenaikan harga emas?

Apabila ditanya kenapa beli jongkong emas? Mereka kata ‘value’ emas stabil dan semakin naik harganya. Ini memang jawapan lazim. Terus terang saya katakan bahawa saya bukanlah anti terhadap aktiviti pembelian emas dan tidak salah membeli jongkong emas atau dinar emas malah saya menggalakkan mereka untuk menyimpan emas, tetapi apabila membeli dengan tujuan untuk menjual semula (justeru dapat keuntungan dalam bentuk duit), maka di situ ada terdapat elemen ‘ihtikar’ atau sorok kerana si pembeli jongkong bukan tujuan menyimpan untuk kegunaan sendiri atau kecemasan di masa mendatang (dan memang pun jongkong/coin bukan tujuan penggunaan, melainkan ianya diubah bentuk kepada barang kemas), tetapi lebih kepada menyimpan jongkong dengan tujuan menjualnya semula pada harga yang tinggi. Ini tidak ubah seperti membeli beras dengan banyak lalu menyimpannya dengan bertujuan untuk menjualnya semula pada harga yang tinggi. Mereka bukan membeli beras dengan tujuan untuk penggunaan tetapi untuk menjual semual beras tersebut pada harga yang tinggi lalu mendapat keuntungan daripadanya. Fenomena seperti ini adakah layak dipanggil aktiviti pelaburan? Sudah tentu janggal rasanya apabila dipanggil pelaburan beras tetapi yang layak adalah aktiviti MENYOROK BERAS!. Namun itulah yang sering berlaku di dalam , masyarakat kita berkaitan transaksi emas yang mereka panggil sebagai pelaburan emas.

Semestinya terdapat ‘arguement’ terhadap pandangan saya ini kerana mereka merasakan jika tidak buat sebegitu sampai bila orang Melayu tidak boleh berniaga emas yang sekarang dimonopoli oleh kaum cina dan sampai bila-bila juga orang Melayu tidak termotivasi untuk memiliki emas. Justeru apa jalan penyelesaiannya?

Mari kita lihat daripada perspektif Islam. Dalam Islam, pelaburan adalah berdasarkan prinsip mudharabah dan musyarakah. Ini kerana, Islam menekankan konsep kerjasama dan sama-sama menanggung risiko dan sama-sama berjaya bila perniagaan mendapat keuntungan. Pelaburan pula bukanlah satu aktiviti mendapatan keuntungan atas angin sebagaimana yang berleluasa sekarang, tetapi ialah adalah satu bentuk aktiviti kerjasama antara pemodal, pemilik modal, rakan kongsi, usahawan dan lain-lai yang terlibat di dalam menggemblengkan asset-aset modal. Aset-aset modal inilah yang perlu dipikul bersama oleh pihak-pihak yang terlibat di dalam kontrak mudharabah mahupun musyarakah itu tadi supaya beroleh keuntungan. Ia bukannya semudah A, B, C atau semudah atas angin. Memang benar Islam membenarkan komisyen di atas setiap transaksi tetapi Islam tidak membenarkan ihtikar iaitu menyimpan sesuatu untuk menjualnya semula pada harga yang mahal.

Kenapa tidak boleh? Jawapannya mudah kerana ia akan menyebabkan sesuatu perniagaan itu akan runtuh kerana harga tidak selamanya akan terus naik apatah lagi kenaikan itu berlaku dalam masa yang singkat. Apabila kenaikan harga ini berterusan, dalam masa yang sama nilai wang pula akan jatuh mendadak dan ini mendekatkan ekonomi kepada fasa keruntuhan atau dalam istilah ekonomi dipanggil ‘boom period’. Sewajibnya harga terus stabil untuk melayakkan system ekonomi itu kekal mapan.

Jadi untuk melayakkan pelaburan emas itu menjadi “syariah compliance” terlebih dahulu emas itu ditukar menjadi barangan kemas kerana hanya dengan barangan kemas, barulah pembeli akan membeli dengan tujuan penggunaan bukan untuk jual balik. Tetapi memang ada orang yang beli barang kemas dengan niat untuk jual balik namun harus diingat mereka menjual apabila keadaan mendesak sahaja seperti tidak cukup wang untuk membeli makanan dan pakaian sebagai contoh. Maka dari situ barulah timbul konsep ar-Rahn seperti mana Rasulullah menggadaikan baju besi kepada orang yahudi ketika itu untuk membeli makanan.

Bolehkah dinar dijualbeli?

Jawapannya sudah tentu tidak. Walaupun ianya emas 999 atau emas 916 ianya masih tidak boleh kerana dinar adalah matawang. Matawang tidak boleh dijualbeli. Ia hanya bertindak sebagai ‘medium of exchange’. Namun, ada yang berhujah, dinar sekarang bukannya matawang justeru ia kekal sebagai komoditi. Memang betul, tapi jika seseorang datang kepada saya hendak membeli kambing dengan dinar yang dia ada, adakah saya akan menolak? Sudah tentu tidak dan tanpa ragu saya akan terima dinar tersebut kerana saya tahu dinar lebih bernilai daripada ringgit. Nah, adakah ianya bukan matawang laggi dalamkeadaan itu? Ianya memang boleh dijadikan matawang dan seharusnya yag lain menyokong penggunaan dinar atau setidak-tidaknya meminimakan penggunaan wang kertas yang semakin hilang fungsi wangnya itu. Malah jika kita lihat di jakarta, ramai peniaga di sana misalnya telah bertransaksi dengan dirham dan dinar malah di sana terdapat pasar dan kedai yang boleh menerima dinar dan dirham.

So, adakah wujud pelaburan emas?

Tidak salah membuat pelaburan dalam emas. Caranya ialah kita mesti perlu memahami konsep pelaburan itu sendiri iaitu menjana modal terhadap kos-kos modal dengan tujuan untuk memperolehi keuntungan. Sebagai contoh, menjual barangan kemas kepada pengguna atau membuka kedai emas sendiri atau membantu rakan-rakan membuka perniagaan barangan-barangan emas. Sukar? Sudah tentu tetapi itulah yang telah dibuat oleh peniaga-peniaga emas sekarang. Tiada jalan singkat untuk berjaya.



Orang bermatian untuk mendapatkan emas namun manpulasi emas bakal memusnahkan industri ini.

Drama dakwah perlu ada perubahan

Seringkali kita dimomokkan mesej drama di akhir cerita atau babak. Jika ada yang bertanya mana "moral of the story", jawabnya di akhir cerita atau drama tersebut. Persoalannya mengapa perlu tunggu hingga akhir drama baru dapat tahu apakah moralnya. Jalan dakwah tidak perlu berkonflik dahulu untuk mencari kenangan. Jalan yang yang aman damai mahupun suasana yang soleh itulah yang perlu dijadikan iktibar. Maknanya setiap perilaku, langkahan, gaya, bahasa, nada, perwatakan pelakon atau dramatis itulah yang perlu diterapkan di awal cerita hinggalah akhirnya. "nanti orang kata bosan pulak"..oh begitu.. tapi di sinilah kreativiti seorang pengarah mahupun penulis skrip dicabar untuk menjadikannya menarik walaupun tidak perlu babak seperti bergaduh, mengumpat jiran, melawan suami, kelab malam, melacur, mencuri, merempit, minum arak dan sebagainya. Mengapa perlu jadi jahat dan kemudiannya jadi baik semata-mata untuk memberi iktibar kepada penonton. Rata-rata drama jarang sekali mengutarakan persoalan kemanusiaan dari awal hingga ke akhir.

Apakah yang membuntu sebenarnya di dalam benak pengarah mahupun penulis skrip masa kini? Jom kita lihat filem Iran (Iran lagi). Walaupun tiada babak minum arak, kelab malam mahupun merempit, jalan ceritanya tetap menarik dan kadangkala menginsafkan dari awal hingga ke akhir. Ceritanya sangat dekat dengan masyarakat Iran itu sendiri dan tidak pula dibuat-buat. Setiap babak yang dipaparkan amat menyentuh perasaan dan anehnya tidak pula perlu perkara-perkara negatif dipaparkan terlebih dahulu. Drama kita ber"style' lama bila memaparkan isu dakwah, isu dakwah yang kemuncak apabila orang yang berdangdut itu berjaya pergi masjid, isu dakwah apabila kemuncaknya pakai tudung yang sebelumnya pakai seksi. Adakah gaya itu saja untuk paparkan nilai kemanusiaan dan keIslamannya. Kenapa tidak orang yang bertudung itu jalan ceritanya ialah bersusah payah untuk mengekalkan pemakaian yang dipakainya, kenapa tidak orang yang berilmu pengetahuan itu sukar beristiqamah dalam perjuangannya menyiarkan Islam. Bukankah itu lebih baik? Kenapa tidak diciptakan babak-babak bagangimana seorang budak lelaki yang menjaga tatasusilanya sejak dari awal drama hingga ke akhirnya? Sukarkah untuk mencipta adegan atau babak yang sentiasa baik dan positif dari awal hingga akhir? Mustahilkah? Jika tidak mustahil jadi mengapa perlu ada drama atau filem yang bertemakan gengster, kaki pukul, mat rempit, hantu puaka dan sebagainya?

Anak saya mungkin takkan kenal mat rempit jika media massa mahupun drama yang terpacul di kaca TV tdak memaparkannya kerana tak mungkin saya membenarkan anak keluar malam untuk melihat mat rempit. Namun sekarang ini, di mana-mana tempat kita merasakan anak kita tidak lagi selamat dan sukar mendapat nilai-nilai yang positif sungguhpun mengurungkan diri mereka di rumah sahaja. Orang yang baik bukan hanya tidak buat perkara haram malah menjauhinya. Tapi jika dalam rumah pun tiada perkara yang boleh diambil dari kaca TV, adakah mungkin TV perlu dipaku rapat? Tak mungkin saya bersetuju dengan pendekatan bahawa kenali yang buruk juga, jika tidak yang baik tidak tahu sempadannya. Namun persoalan maha penting adalah mana mungkin perkara baik itu ada sempadan jika yang buruknya tidak langsung dibicarakan.

Children of heaven: Antara filem Iran yang memaparkan nilai positif dari satu babak ke satu babak yang lain

Marc Faber: Why I am bullish on gold

Noted global economic analyst and investor Marc Faber says gold is the best investment among commodities and there is no harm in investors amassing the yellow metal even at these high prices.

In his latest June outlook on the global economy, Faber asked investors to stay away from industrial commodities. "Global growth is slowing, which means weaker demand and lower prices for industrial commodities," he said.

Faber who publishes the widely circulated Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report said that he still likes gold and recommends a gradual accumulation despite market fluctuations.

He said that longer-term gold can only go higher because of negative real interest rates. Even a deflationary collapse is unlikely to hurt gold because the Fed will simply debase the dollar to get nominal prices higher.

"If the Fed gets it right and successfully re-inflates asset prices, then inflation will be in the double-digits, which would be bullish for gold," Faber pointed out.

Faber predicted the top in the equity markets in Nov 2007 and caught the bottom in March 2009, making his subscribers a lot of money.

On the global stock market, Faber is still cautious on equities, believing that a more significant market correction is around the corner.

However, shorts should beware because they are fighting the Federal Reserve. If you have to be in the market, stick to consumer staples like MO, JNJ, KO, PG, etc. For the ultimate contrarian investor, take a look at some select housing stocks (TOL,LEN, KBH), but only if you have a high risk tolerance.

On bonds, Faber said he likes treasuries for a trade. He said taht 10 year yields could fall to 2.5% during a stock market correction. Longer-term Faber hates Treasuries and dismisses Albert Edwards call for sub 2% yields for the 10 year.

Faber said that it is very hard in this environment to predict what will happen in the markets. The Fed's manipulation of asset prices has caused large distortions. However, one thing is clear: the Fed will not let the markets fall too much.

This is why Faber thinks the stock market will trend higher (in nominal terms) or at least trade sideways for the forseeable future.

Source: Commodity online

Gold shines as secure commodity investment

Gold's standing as the perpetually valuable element has been repeatedly underscored this year when striking record high prices.

And the precious metal served as security during the deep recession caused by the financial crisis that began in 2008. Yet as government officials devote energies and effort into rejuvenating the moribund economy, questions remain as to gold's value as an investment tool.

Reuters reports gold is considered a stalwart through rough economic times as it has "regained its shine at the worst of times over the past decade" while also noting its advances when the value of the U.S. dollar descends. Such has been the case during the recent past as fiscal crises appear more prominent.

"The reasons for buying gold haven't diminished," senior analyst Jeff Clark of Casey Research in Sacramento told the news service. "Unless we change course of how we handle the debt and deficits, there is a good reason to buy gold."

Another good reason to buy gold is the precious metal never will sink to having no value. To the contrary, since the middle of 2001, gold futures have skyrocketed 500 percent, which is equal to an annualized return of 17.5 percent.

Interest in pursuing gold in Nevada, from where 80 percent of the U.S.' supply of the precious metal comes, also has soared, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports, citing data from the Bureau of Land Management of the Department of the Interior. The state's offerings are a significant factor as to why the U.S. is the globe's fourth-biggest producer of gold, trailing China, then Australia and top entry South Africa.

An outfit that enables members' pursuit of gold has seen significant boosts in involvement. The Nye Gold Seekers club brags as many as eight new members per month and stands at about 500 - after having started three years ago with 10 members.

"The price of gold has a lot to do with it," club leader Janisse Ager told the Review-Journal, also noting the group's membership drive was prompted by the rough economic waters and high jobless levels in the southern region of the state.

Members of the group literally sift through the dirt with hopes of finding the precious metal and often those dreams are far-fetched.

"Basically, they're thinking they're going to pick up gold off the hills," Ager said.

The record price of gold futures is $1,575.79 per troy ounce, a value set in early May. That followed an April that saw the precious metal devote the majority of its trading sessions to rising in value, breaking all-time record-high prices, and setting new top values. Gold set record highs more than once per trading session several times in April.

The various drivers of gold futures include when the value of the dollar decreases, concerns about turmoil with nations' financial systems and institutions like the euro zone, and geopolitical events that shake confidence in stability.

Though gold's performance in May was nowhere near its prowess during the month prior, many still believe in the precious metal's intention to continue rising in value.

"Gold will eventually go up to $2,000 an ounce," Mike Frawley, global head of metals at the Newedge Group in New York, told Reuters. But he said that is unlikely to occur "much before early next year."

Another outfit agreed with gold striking that $2,000 benchmark and also predicted a surge in value will occur sooner than later.

CItiFX Technicals of Citigroup predicted gold futures will press all-time record high prices within weeks and exceed $1,700 per troy ounce by the end of the year.

Source: Daniel Trading

Gold fever rages on

THERE'S a lot of talk about gold these days. More Malaysians are investing in the precious metal and even criminals seem to have caught on to the gold bug.

Last month, police nabbed five kidnappers in Klang who demanded 10 one-kilogram gold bars (worth RM1.44mil at that time) from the victim's family. It is believed to be the country's first-ever kidnapping case involving the use of gold bars as ransom.

More recently, the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) reportedly discovered gold bars in the homes of several Customs officers during raids.

There is good reason why gold is sought after it recorded an all-time price hike this week, reaching US$1,500 (RM4,500) an ounce for the first time in history.

Over the last year, the price of gold has risen approximately 23%; and in the last three years it has risen 98%. While unrest in the Middle East and the situation in Japan are cited for record gold prices in recent months, shaky financial systems are the main reasons why the price of gold has been shooting up over the years.

Companies are now aggressively marketing gold in the form of bars and coins while banks are offering gold-related savings accounts.

In cyberworld, there are countless numbers of websites offering gold products and online forums are hotting up with discussions on investment in the glittering metal.

According to RH Investment Services Labuan director Richard Hull, the rise in the gold price is predominately linked to the amount of US currency in circulation.

He explains that it took 200 years for the US to print US$825bil (RM2.5 tril). But in Sept 2008, the US government printed US$900bil (RM2.7tril) and in March 2009, another US$1.2tril (RM3.6tril). This means that in less than a year, they added over US$2tril (RM6tril) to the money supply or a 370% increase in currency.

“People are investing in precious metals because of distrust in the financial system. They want to put money into something that is real,” says Hull, adding that all the currencies in the world are backed against the US dollar.

He believes there is sound economic reason to estimate that the gold price may reach US$15,000 (RM45,000) an ounce, a rise of 1,000% from its present level.

Ng Yih Pyng, the president of the Federation of Goldsmiths and Jewellers Associations Of Malaysia says jewellery shops in the country started to stock on gold wafer and bars a few years ago when there was demand for it.

“Before, people bought gold in the form of jewellery. Now investors buy gold bars and wafers. Most, if not all jewellery shops, now sell gold bars from 1g to 100g. The trend is becoming stronger every day,” he shares.

People buy based on what they can afford as gold bars are very expensive.

To put it into perspective a 100g gold bar (999.9 purity) that barely sits on the palm can fetch anything between RM15,000 and RM17,000 (depending on the brand) these days. Prices are based on daily updates.

“People are not so confident with currency and other investments, so they diversify a bit,” says Ng, adding that white gold and diamonds have also become popular in the last year.

Acupuncturist Oran Kavity, 52, purchased gold through an online website a few years ago. Kavity had then purchased some property in London, and was unsure of what to do with his remaining funds.

Wanting to diversify his assets, the Londoner put the rest of his money into buying gold. And his gold investments have tripled in value over the last three years.

He sold some of his gold and managed to raise almost RM250,000 for his business venture in Malaysia.

Marcus Chong of mysmartgold.com has observed an increasing interest in gold investment as people are becoming more knowledgeable about gold and are making enquiries.

He says people know they can make profit out of gold and are aware of the different brand names available.

He has also noticed a stark difference in the way people pose questions now compared to just a year ago.

“They used to ask questions like where to place the gold bars and what gold investment is about. Now they are asking direct questions like what's the rate,” he says.

Businesswoman Aldila Tahziz, 35, invested about RM50,000 in gold last September when she wanted to start up her bakery supplies business.

Whenever she needs to raise money for her business, she pawns her gold and gets 70% of the current gold price. She only has to pay the pawnshop RM0.75 per day for storing her gold. When her business is profitable, she reclaims the gold from the pawnshop.

“I keep on rolling the money in my business until I can get back the gold,” says Aldila who also invests in property and shares.

Aldila constantly checks on the price of gold three times a day at least.

She keeps the gold in a safe deposit box and has also purchased some gold coins (dinars), which she keeps at home for emergencies.

Aldila has started investing in silver as well, which has gone up 124% in the last year and 188% in the last three years.

In Malaysia, silver is not as popular as gold, although some gold-traders stock up on it.

Chan Sew Mei (not her real name), 35, has started investing in gold for her five-year-old daughter, purchasing 100g every year for the purpose. In addition, she invests in a gold savings account which will go towards her daughter's education fund.

“I think gold has a certain sentimental meaning and value,” says Chan who also invests in stocks and property.

“When inflation occurs, gold prevails,” quips Chan who was introduced to gold investment by a friend in 2007. She has also diversified to investing in silver.

Jamaluddin Khalid, managing director of Saudagar Emas says many are turning to gold because of the higher returns.

The former bank officer of 20 years got into gold trading in 2009 after some research on the Internet. He recalls his friend making fun of him for selling “one-cent” coins (one dinar) for RM440 back then. But last year, his friend bought a dinar from him for RM580. Today, that one dinar is worth RM690.

“During the time of the prophets, one dinar could buy you a goat. Now, it can still buy one goat. After 1,500 years, it has still retained its value. Even gold dust is sought after these days,” he quips.

Jamaluddin got into the business after researching articles on the Internet. He borrowed money from close friends to start the business and has no regrets.

As a gold trader who doesn't have his own shop, Jamaluddin is wary of meeting anyone and only does it at places with CCTV cameras such as banks. He recalls an occasion when someone wanted to buy 1kg gold bars.

Jamaluddin suggested conducting business at a police station, but the person declined.

Rajen Devadason, a Securities Commission-licensed financial planner with MAAKL Mutual Bhd , notes that the practice of investing in gold is slowly gathering momentum.

Not long ago, he points out, it was theoretically appropriate to have precious metals comprise 5% of a diversified portfolio. Today, he feels 10% is more appropriate because of the “irresponsible action of developed nations, most notably the US, in circulating more currency around”.

He suggests that individuals gradually build up their gold position in stages over the next few years, with the aim of having gold by itself or with the other three precious metals, silver, platinum and palladium, reach between 8% and 10% of their total investment portfolio.

Devadason adds that it makes sense to have between one-tenth and one-fifth of investment in gold coins, wafers or bars. This relatively small portion of the total gold should be kept somewhere safe yet accessible in the event of a financial system meltdown.

“The likelihood of that happening is small, which is why the amount of physical gold that should be kept handy need not be very large,” he rationalises.

He points out that while gold is a safe investment during times of turmoil, human society doesn't just rely on gold for existence.

“Our economic health depends even more on the health of our businesses, on our supply of food and fuel, and in the real estate that houses us and our companies from which our crops spring forth,” he elaborates.

He adds that a well-diversified portfolio should include significant equity exposure in key geographic regions, including the economic powerhouse United States and well-run emerging economies such as China, India and Indonesia.

He also suggests investing in equities that are tied with food production, hard commodity exposure such as oil, equities that are tied to mineral mining and exploration, and either direct real estate or indirect property exposure via real estate investment trusts.

“It is unwise to just invest in gold and any investment should be done as part of a concerted plan to construct a sensibly diversified portfolio,” he advises.

Devadason believes those who are savvy investors will gradually increase their personal purchases of gold over the next one or two years before everyone else wakes up to the fact that gold prices are rising.

He urges caution, though.

“It's likely a bubble will then form. When it bursts, unsophisticated speculators will lose a great deal of money,” he warns.

Source: The Star (Sunday- 24/004/2011)